A place to make your thinking checkable.

Kairos brings crypto prediction-market questions, resolution rules, and a dated research notebook into one place. The beta is free and supports research only.

Start with the actual contract

The desk uses public Polymarket market data. A YES price is shown as a market-implied probability, not an independent forecast, guaranteed execution quote, or recommendation. Liquidity, fees, and the order book can affect actual execution on the venue.

We show the venue’s resolution text as provided. A contract deadline is not an announced event date. Links under “Resolution references” are extracted from the venue’s rules or resolution source; their presence is not independent verification.

Selected markets also include “From the primary source” notes. These summarize a specifically linked company document or announcement, with its publication date and our review time. A historical announcement or holdings disclosure establishes a dated fact; it is not a current-status check or an independent forecast. Markets without a reviewed note still show the venue’s references.

Make a specific, dated assessment

Choose your probability of YES, explain your reasoning, and record what would change your view. Publishing creates an unlisted page that anyone with its link can read. The server records the time and a snapshot of the market quote and rules. User source links are not fetched or independently verified.

Preserve what came before

The app preserves the original thesis. Follow-ups appear separately, with their own date and market snapshot. An anonymous browser cookie controls who can add them. There is no verified author identity in this beta.

These are application records, not blockchain attestations. The operator controls the database. A timestamp does not establish accuracy, investment performance, or forecasting skill.

Follow the outcome carefully

A favorable price change does not settle the market or prove a thesis correct. Kairos checks the venue’s resolution API and corroborating market records. A confirmed result is shown separately from pending, disputed, unavailable, or explicitly reported 50/50 settlement states. A closed market or a price near 100% is insufficient to identify a winner. This release does not assign win rates or automatically score theses.

Opening a receipt checks its market and records confirmed outcomes in an append-only history. “First observed” is when Kairos saved a result; it is not the event time. A venue-reported resolution timestamp, when available, is labeled separately. Source failures do not erase earlier observations, and repeated checks do not change their first-observed times. These are venue reports stored by the app, not independent verification of a blockchain transaction.

Understand freshness

The market feed is cached for up to five minutes; individual market data for up to one minute. Each quote displays the source retrieval time. If a source cannot be reached, the app shows unavailable data rather than illustrative prices. Closed, inactive, and past-deadline markets are excluded from new-thesis discovery.

Source documentation: Polymarket public market API.